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Prediction markets, before you trade one

Literacy first, positions later

Latest article Final Walkthrough Checklist Before a Prediction-Market Trade Feature • 2026-10-15 • 4 min Read it

Recent work. From the desk.

Yes No Academy teaches market literacy: reading prices, volumes, and resolution criteria before risking a dollar — and the mistakes every beginner makes on schedule.

“It May Be That”: Meaning Before a Prediction-Market Decision How to Improve Forecast Accuracy in Prediction Markets Probability Basics for Prediction-Market Beginners Probability of A or B: Formula and Market Example

From the desk

Recent articles

Feature • 2026-10-15 • 3 min “It May Be That”: Meaning Before a Prediction-Market Decision Learn what “it may be that” means, then turn a vague possibility into an exact event and compare its probability with prices, spreads and fees. Read article Feature • 2026-10-13 • 5 min How to Improve Forecast Accuracy in Prediction Markets Improve probability estimates with a forecast log, evidence-based updates and Brier scores. Compare fairly, then check spreads and fees separately. Read article Feature • 2026-10-13 • 4 min Probability Basics for Prediction-Market Beginners Learn probability basics with one worked prediction-market example: define the event, estimate its chance, then account for the spread and fees. Read article Feature • 2026-10-10 • 3 min Probability of A or B: Formula and Market Example Calculate P(A or B), distinguish independent from mutually exclusive events, and compare a worked probability estimate with market rules, spreads and fees. Read article
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Coverage

What we write about

  1. 01 Reading a Market Price, volume, spread, and history — the pre-trade checklist.
  2. 02 Resolution Rules The fine print that settles arguments — and accounts.
  3. 03 Beginner Discipline Position sizing and the five mistakes everyone makes first.